Monday, December 10, 2012

December 10, 2012 Update


DJIA:13,155 NASDAQ:2,978 10-YR TRS: 6/32, yield 1.627% Oil:$85.93 EURO:$1.2926 YEN:82.49 
Micro
  • SPZ: getting killed from anxiety overseas after Italian Prime Minister Monti declared his resignation, no notable US data will be released today.
  • Earnings: Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) forecast their own mid-Q4 EPS at $0.23-.31 per share which is much higher than the $0.07 forecast from analysts, AMB Industries (NYSE:ABM) Q4 EPS forecast at $0.44 per share, Greif Inc. (NYSE:GEF) Q4 EPS forecast of $0.56 per share. 
  • Michael Bloomberg is eyeing to acquire The Financial Times, which would make him half owner of The Economist. Thomson Reuters also rumored as a bidder. Deal valued at around $1.2B.
  • AIG agreed to sell their 80.1% stake in plane-leasing unit (ILFC) for $4.23B, focusing on raising cash in order to buy back shares.  
  • With hopes of pushing fans towards using Facebook, Instagram (NASDAQ:FB) disabled interaction with Twitter, which plans to create their own photo editing service by the holidays. 
  • Virgin Atlantic and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) are rumored to form a revenue-sharing agreement on transatlantic flights should the US carrier decide to purchase Singapore Airlines’ 49% holding in Virgin Atlantic. 
  • Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) successfully avoided paying half of their international taxes, only dishing out $2B, by transferring $9.8B in revenues into a shell company in Bermuda (a country does not have a corporate income tax).
  • Nymex crude-oil futures gained $0.39, trading at $86.32 a barrel.
  • Gold futures rose $4.80 an ounce, trading at $1,710.30.
Macro
  • Asian Markets: trading higher from of a combination of optimistic data on the Chinese economy and from the U.S’s better-than-expected employment statistics. 
  • European Markets: concerns about Italian politics are pushing European stocks lower, with Italian equities tanking over 3% and the pan-European Stoxx Europe index down over 0.5%.
  • Italian 10-year bond yields surge 26 basis points to 4.79% from political anxiety after Prime Minister Monti announced his recognition at the end of this year. The scandalous and sleazy former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced his plan to run in next election that is likely to take place in February. 
  • Industrial production in China is up 10.1% Y/Y in November compared to October’s rise of 9.6%; retail sales +14.9% vs +14.5%; vehicle sales +8.2%. 
  • China’s export growth experiencing a slowdown at 2.9% Y/Y in November from October’s 11.6%; imports flat vs. +2.4%; trade surplus dwindles to $19.6B vs. $32B; exports to the US -2.5% and to the EU -18% (although numbers believed to be rigged).
  • The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 80.473, likely driven by the increase of European drama.
Spreading some Bullish Holiday Cheer 
Gift giving does not always have to be completely selfless. Although the National Retail Federation has forecast a 4.1% jump in holiday retail sales (down from 5.6% in 2011), there is no reason to have a bullish outlook on the Santa Claus rally. Investing in companies that sell this season’s most wanted gifts have the potential to be lucrative for investors (NRF forecasts robust Q4 earnings for companies that rely on consumer spending), but can also curb Scrooge-like behavior by incentivizing shareholders to buy items from companies they hold positions in. On top of children’s wish list include Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) Doc McStuffins ($49.99) paired with the DVD series ($15 each, giving DIS the potential to pull in continuous revenue), Hasbro’s (NASDAQ:HAS) modernized Furby ($60) which now comes with an interactive mobile app, and Leapfrog’s (NYSE:LF) award winning educational LeapPad2 ($100). Kids of all ages also have their eyes on Nintendo’s (NASDAQOTH:NTDOY) Wii U ($300) which wirelessly connects with Wii console, and Activision Blizzard’s (NASDAQ:ATVI) Call of Duty: Black Ops II ($60, which has already pulled revenue of over $1B) and Skylanders Giants ($76). Tablets like Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPad mini ($330), Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Kindle ($69), and Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Nexus ($199) are of course on everyone’s wish list. As long as investors select their gifts and stocks accordingly, there is no reason for savvy shareholders to be stingy this holiday season as their generosity may come full circle. 

No comments:

Post a Comment